Goal Keepers - Trend Position Analysis
I have to admit I probably don't do enough trend positional analysis myself, I've written a few articles for a number of other website on how to do the analysis & last year had some good feedback from readers. So in an effort to improve my own standings, here is the first of four articles.The analysis looks at the several different trend charts, from the whole of last seasons data. The Trend analysis is also good for spotting anomalies which can indicate value / form or perhaps over performance. Note that the charts cannot be looked at in isolation, much like you wouldn't rate a player on red or yellow card stats only, the links between the charts will be explained through out.
Price vs Points.
The charts are order by the 2014/15 start of season player price (blue bar charts) increasing right to right. i.e. Myhill, Elliot, least expensive. Hart, Cech Most Expensive. (Note keepers that obtained less than 10 points for the season were not included.)
The two charts are split by over & under 100 points, in prior seasons I've lumped all players into one Graph, however I really only want to pick from the players getting the most points (Over 100), hence the reason for the split, so that we could concentrate on these upper third players. This has caused the trend line to have a strong goodness of fit, nearly all points sitting close to the trend line.
Points to note: Out of the upper third of players only Howard, Szczesny out performed the rest of the group (Above line of fit.) Speroni can also just about be included in this elite group, these three player out performed all other goal keepers when considering Points for Value. (Its worth noting Arsenals have recently signed a new keeper, David Ospina from Lille a regular Champions League team in years gone by, which may effect Szczesny game time this year.) Hart, De Gea and latterly Migonlet, Boruc and Krul, did not perform as well as the rest of the elite group. (Note these players would have been standout performers if I had combined the under and over 100 point graphs, and would have been majorly valuable at last years prices too.) You might be surprised by Harts Terrible values for money, this can be explained by his omission from the City side, in the middle of last season, hence not justifying his overall price as most expensive goal keeper alongside Cech. (I'll re-mention Hart later, as I actually had him for a spell in my team last season, I'll explain why later.)
From the under 100 Chart, Vorm Foster & both West Ham Keepers Adrian and Jääskeläinen are stand outs, later we will look a the Min Played for Value, where these players will all feature. Myhill looks like he needs more game time for West Brom as he picks up the points when he plays (With Foster back likely to become an issue at some point in the season this looks like a very good choice for a backup keeper at £4m this season, if you are not averse to your reserve keeper warming the bench.) McGregor also look like standout, however his minutes charts should also be consulted.
Minutes vs Points.
Again the Charts are split, but this time, I've isolated the elite players (over 100 points,) and shown all of the players who gained above 25 points.The charts are ordered by the Total point over the season, increasing right to left. i.e. Tremmel, Harper, least Points. Howard at the top with the most points. (Note keepers that obtained less than 25 points for the season were not included, there were quite a few of these.)
It's getting late now, I'll pick this explanation up tomorrow, and include a few other graphs...
Watch this space.
